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Can Specialty and GLP-1 Momentum Support Cencora's Q4 Results?

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Key Takeaways

  • COR's Q4 revenues are estimated at $83.16B, up 5.2%, with EPS seen rising 13.5% to $3.79.
  • COR's U.S. strength in specialty drugs offsets international softness and moderating GLP-1 growth.
  • COR's RCA integration and OneOncology investments are expected to lift annual operating income.

Cencora (COR - Free Report) is slated to report fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on Nov. 5, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 5.82%. COR’s earnings beat estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 6.19%.

Cencora’s Q4 Estimates

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues is pegged at $83.16 billion, up 5.2% from the prior-year quarter’s level. The consensus mark for earnings is pinned at $3.79 per share, indicating an improvement of 13.5% from the prior-year quarter’s figure.

Our model estimate for total revenues and adjusted EPS is pegged at $83.19 billion and $3.79, respectively.

Factors to Consider Before COR Reports

Cencora’s fiscal fourth-quarter 2025 results are likely to reflect continued momentum in its U.S. Healthcare Solutions business, partially offset by lingering softness in international operations. The pharmaceutical distributor’s third-quarter earnings topped expectations with 20% EPS growth, supported by strong specialty distribution trends and the recent Retina Consultants of America acquisition, which boosted both scale and margins.

The fourth-quarter performance is expected to have remained solid, albeit with moderating growth trends. U.S. segment revenues should have benefited from resilient pharmaceutical utilization and strong specialty demand across physician practices and health systems, especially in retina and oncology. However, management has guided for growth of approximately 9% as GLP-1 drug sales, though still expanding at a double-digit clip, are likely to have decelerated from prior quarters.

The loss of a large oncology customer following M&A activity and the exit of a high-revenue but low-margin grocery customer are also likely to have weighed on top-line expansion. Our model estimates US Healthcare Solutions segment sales to be $73.98 billion for fiscal fourth-quarter, implying 5.2% growth.

Internationally, the performance might have continued to face headwinds from weakness in the higher-margin global specialty logistics and consulting businesses, though sequential improvement and favorable currency trends must have helped stabilize margins. Integration of RCA and investments in OneOncology are expected to have supported operating income growth of around 15-16% for the year, with U.S. operating income advancing more than 20%. Our model estimates International segment sales to be $8 billion for fiscal fourth-quarter, implying 8.3% growth.

Cencora, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cencora, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Cencora, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Cencora, Inc. Quote

Earnings Beat Likely

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Cencora this earnings season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat, which is the case here.

Earnings ESP: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate ($3.80 per share) and the Zacks Consensus Estimate ($3.79), is +0.31%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: COR carries a Zacks Rank #3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Solventum Corporation (SOLV - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +0.88% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The company is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6.

SOLV’s earnings surpassed estimates in each of the trailing four quarters, with the average surprise being 13.91%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, SOLV’s third-quarter EPS is expected to decline 12.8% from the year-ago reported figure.

McKesson (MCK - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.72% and a Zacks Rank #1 at present. The company is slated to release second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on Nov. 5.

MCK’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, the average surprise being 1.50%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, MCK’s fiscal second-quarter EPS is expected to gain 26.2% from the year-ago reported figure.

Globus Medical (GMED - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +1.69% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present. The company is set to release third-quarter 2025 results on Nov. 6.

GMED’s earnings surpassed estimates in three of the trailing four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 10.82%. According to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, GMED’s third-quarter EPS is expected to decline 6% from the year-ago reported figure.

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